Game N#22/1000

Seattle - NY (Under 74,5) 1,99
Added a pick on 2nd half between the Seattle Storm and NY. I haven't to much explanations, just saw that the game is close and the teams scored only 31 points in the second quarter (usually in that quarter the teams starting play defence. My teaser is still alive, but if I'll loose it, I hope this pick will win.

Game N#21/1000

WNBA Teaser. Odds: 2,80
My first teaser of the season, 3 games from WNBA.

1) Seattle is a favorite to win tonight at NY, both teams are after 3 losses in a row. The storm lucky to have back S.Bird. If in the first game she made only damage, tonight she will be back on track, bringing to her team a win. NY gaved good fights away vs. strong opponents, but after that lost to weakest team in the league (houston) at home. Seattle +1,5

2) Connecticut Sun will play at home vs. Houston. The suns are finally in great form (won 5 in a row), I hardly believe that comets are the team to stop them. Sun -2,5

3) Connecticut - Houston (Over 147). Not much to say.

Game N#20/1000===LOST===(11-7-2)

Kansas City -Detroit (Over 5) 1st half (1,909)
Just liked it, but it seems like I'm going to loose it...

Game N#19/1000===WON===(11-6-2)

USA(U19) - Serbia(U19) Under 160.5 (1.99)

Like in yesterday game in semifinal between USA and France, I believe in under. It's final...

In the first game between the teams, USA won 82-78. It will be hard for teams shot as well as they did in that game. Once again, it's final.

Game N#18/1000===WON===(10-6-2)

Turkey (U20) - France (U20) Under 145 (2,04)

Game for a bronze medal on U20 women championship. It's the second game between the teams in the last week. France won in previous game 76-70. I looked the stats at the morning and saw that France shot 61,9% from 2pt in that match, while Turkey 50%. I'm not sure at all that in this important game the teams can repeat such a good shooting. The line shows the teams scoring average, but speaking about defence, France allows 65 and Turkey 73.

Game N#17/1000===LOST===(9-6-2)

Bulgaria(U20)(-6,5) - Greece(U20) (1,971)

Bulgaria have a better team and will try to win this game firstival for their fans. The expectations were high, but at the end all that Bulgaria or Greece can have is place #9. The home team won their last match from nowhere vs. Belarus and will "fly" today trying to destroy Greece. Comparing the stats Greece are weaker in each and every component. They are scores the lowest 57.1 points per game and won only one game (yesterday vs. the last placed Latvia).

Last year the national teams met twice and Bulgaria won in both matches, the last of them was the last game of the tournament for the teams (places 7-8), Bulgaria won in that game by 10, after 3 quarters they led by 31! Today it's their last game together and they are playing at home.

Game N#16/1000===PUSH===(9-5-2)

KuPS (-1) - TP47 Tornio (2,01)

KuPS relegated from Veikkausliiga, but it seems the team will find quickly the way back. After 11 rounds KuPS on the first place (6-5-0) with the best attacking stats in the league (23 goals) and best defence (8 goals). The team plays great at home with 5 wins and 1 draw (19-5). Today they will meet TP 47 Tornio (4-4-3, 16-12) the only team (except KuPS) without a loss away. TP 47 won 2 and drew 3 games away. Looking at the opponnents they play, I found out that 4 out of this 5 games were played vs. opponents weaker than TP (VIFK, PP70, Kokkola and Haamenliina). I think that today this unbeaten away series will over, KuPS just a better team according to results. For some time Pinnacle closed this game, but after 1+ hour the line is posted again without any changes.

Game N#15/1000===WON===(9-5-1)

Latvia (U20) - Belarus (U20) Under 135 (1,935)

In my previous game I wrote what meaningless game is. In this match the teams will play for not being the last in the tournament. In division B this event go Over, in division A I expecting for opposite. It is surprise (for me) to see this both teams playing for such a low place. Both teams had high expectations, but now they will try do everything not to be in the last place. They know how to defend... Belarus allows around 66 points per game , while Latvia 67.
The teams scores 131 together (belarus 65, latvia 66). No one wants to loose this one.

Game N#14/1000===LOST===(8-5-1)

Dynamo Kyev (-1,75) - Arsenal Kyev (2,12)

It's the second game for both teams in Ukranian league. Dynamo started their season at Donietsk vs. Shahtyor and bringed home 1 point. Arsenal Kyev played at their home vs. Metalurg D and lost 1-3. The differences between the teams are huge. Last year the teams met in the last round of the season and Dynamo won 1-0 (with their youngsters). Looking to H2H Dynamo won 6 (2 draws) out of the last 8 matches (only once with an one goal advantage). Arsenal almoust relegated last season. The team finished the season on the 14 place (15 and 16 were relegated). The team has a very difficult financial situation, and there were rumours that Arsenal selling games for survive. Starting from 2007 (from the 2-nd half of the Ukrainian league) Arsenal have 1 win 3 draws and 11 losses... Dynamo K is much better team and it will be a surprise if they will not beat this handicap.

Game N#13/1000===(8-4-1)

Romania (U20)-Netherlands (U20) Over 126 (1,952)

Romania and Netherlands will play for place #7 in Division B. I saw this low total and decided to take it immediately. Place #7 in other words is meaningless game. Although Romania scores only 58 pts. per game, the ladies takes more than 60 shots per game, the 58 point total can go up vs. Netherlands (allows 72 points per game). If Romania takes a high tempo 64 shots per game, Netherlands takes even more (69), I hope the 66 points average will go up (Romania allows 70).

Loike in my yesterday Belarus-Poland game, I hope to see a good scoring game and hope that this 126 total will be beaten.

Game N#12/1000===LOST===(7-4-1)

W. Eschauer vs. S. Darcis (Eshauer to win) 1,787

Werner Eschauer will play his first ever ATP final vs. Steve Darcis (his first final also). The austrian player have an exelent season so far, it's his 15-th tournament this year and this final is his #6! Speaking about finals, Eschauer won 4 and lost 1 (retired vs. Carlos Berlocq after 0-2 in third set). Werner currently ranked #66 and will try to win his 5 titule in a battle against young surprise - Darcis. Darcis will have a hard time today vs. a clay specialist, Eshauer record this year 30-8 on clay (32-18 last year), so far Eshauer lost only one set during this tournament (vs. C.Moya 6-7 in 1/4 finals). Darcis currently ranked #297, but probably will go up after this sunday. His record this year 13-5 (all on clay and 7 from them here) and 11-8 last year. He started this tournament from qualifying rounds. He's doing great job, but I must to agree with the bookies that he's underdog today. Eshauer 33 years old and will do everything to win his first ATP titule. If not now, when?

Game N#11/1000===PUSH===(7-3-1)

Detroit - Washington +8 (1,971)

It looks like I'm going to lose my pick #10, but still today's result good for me and I will take it with two hands tomorrow also. My final pick for today is WNBA. I thought about this pick from the morning and then saw the same choise on famous israeli betting forum. Traslation from hebrew from Hamaftsits: It's a second game in 24hrs for both teams. Detroit gave their best match of the season in time and in place they wanted. They were better during the whole game and deserved to win at Indiana. It will be the third game in 4 nights for Detroit.The fact that star D.Nolan played 40 minutes in the last two games probably will reduce her importance tonight (she will be very tired). No doubt, Detroit is better, but the handicap can be to much for them. Detroit marked the game vs. Indiana as the most importamt on July. Last time Detroit played 3 games in 4 nights, they lost game N#3 to... Washington.

Washington started the season very bad (0-8), but from the last 13 games the team won 9. Their motivation is superhigh, they believes once again in making it to the post season.

Game N#10/1000===LOST===(7-3)

Colorado Rockies Over 4 (1,862)

My next pick is from MLB. May be I'm wrong betting this sport, but there is a lot of information and stats over the net about this sport, so I can learn it very good even without seeing any match from the start to the end. Mike Bacsik with his 4.87 ERA will be in trouble against the inform Colorado Rockies. Bacsik's record this year 2-6 and there is very good chances for him to go 2-7. In six starts at RFK Stadium, the left-hander is 0-3 with a 5.06 ERA. He didn't get the decision in Washington's 4-3 victory on Monday despite holding Houston to one earned run in 5 2-3 innings. I somehow can't see him having two good games in a row. In each of his 6 losses his team allowed more than 4 runs. The Colorado Rockies will play with 4 plus 30% hitters and I believe they can do their job. Interesting stats: the last game between the two finished 3-1 (colorado won), in 9 games before that Colorado scored at least 4 runs.

Game N#9/1000===WON===(7-2)

USA (U19) - France (U19) Under 172 (1,971)

Just can't agree with Prija from bettingbasket.com. He says: "Total went 3 points down since their group game, but I still like it and taking it without hesitations. I'll just repeat in short what I was saying before that game, that these teams score a lot cause they defend very well and get a lot of easy points from fast breaks against weaker opponents as they can't match them. When playing each other, those easy points get heavily reduced and they have to sweat a lot more to score. Group game finished 87-82 for USA with 53 points scored in the last quarter when Frenchmen were chasing a big lead of Americans and they played extremely fast in last 5 minutes. Match still went 7 points under the line and it shouldn't be different today when also game importance could play a role". He's speaking about Under 173,5 total. I took U172

Game N#8/1000===WON===(6-2)

Serbia (U19) - Germany (U19) Over 3 (2,05)

Somebody over the net called Serbia an "Over" mashine, looking to the results I can't not agree.
France-Serbia (5-2), Russia - Serbia (2-6). Germany can also score: Russia - Germany (2-3), Germany - France (1-1).
Why I'm betting this game? For fun! in addition to the stats...I decided to see the game on Eurosport and relex from the computer work.

Game N#7/1000===WON===(5-2)

Bulgaria (U20) - Belarus (U20) Over 132 (1,952)

Bulgaria and Belarus shoot 65 and 66 points per game, but allowing more in their contests. The games for the 9-12 is usually meaningless and so will be in this game also (I think). Bulgaria girls wanted more from this game in their country, but they can say thanks for not being relegated.

With taking 63 shots per game and making only 51 points from that shots, they can complaine only theirselves. My pick is based on the fact that both teams are tired from fighting and will try to enjoy the game...Belarus taked 60 shots per game until now and maked only 52 points from that shots. Both teams are OK from FT. It's not an easy pick, but I hope to win it...

Game N#6/1000===WON===(4-2)

Bayern M (-0,25) - Werder Bremen (1,787)

The soccer season for me starts today. The games between Bayern and Werder allways interesting and so will be today. Bayern wants to win their first official game, they want a titule in Bundesliga and for that reason they spend a lot of money during this summer. Not all the "buyings" will play today, but Close, Ribbery and Hamit-Antilop will play. I just trying to compare between the offences and Bayern have a huge advantage today. Werder lost their last friendly game to liverpool (2-4), so don't worry Bayern will score at least twice too. Bremen has problems with their attacking line-up, they just have no strikers for this game... actually they have two guys from the mateur team (Rosenberg and Sidler).

The -0,25 line convinced me to bet on this game although is the first official game of the season.

Game N#5/1000===LOST===(3-2)

Lithuania (U19) - Canada (U19) Over 166 (1,98)

Crazy pick. I'm not looked the stats. I just remember that in the last game Lithuania scored 110+ points and Canada's game finished after OT vs. China after 78-78 in regulation. Lithuanian players said that they not comed to Serbia for the 9-th place, but they will take it playing fine, quick and resultative basketball. The canadian side very athletic (americans) and they also have no problem with scoring (their defense is not strong enough for boys from Baltica).

Game N#4/1000===WON===(3-1)

Ukraine (U16) - Turkey (U16) Over 135 (1,952)

The game between Turkey and Ukraine actually will go one way. The question is only by how much Turkey will win. The bookies set the total on -24.5, may be it's nothing if we look at Ukraine loss (51-103) to Lithuania, but I'm not trust Turkey, even if they beat weak Portugal by 41. In that game the turkish side won the game in quarter #3 with an 30-6 score.

I'm going with the over here because of two teams, Turkey shoot bad from behind the arc, only 7/32 and I expect them doing better today (they won 79-38), Ukraine scored 51 points vs. Lithuania, but made only 16 baskets (incl. 7 three pointers) during the whole game, from them too I expect better performence.

Game N#3/1000 ===LOST===(2-1)

Israel (U20) - Hungary (U20) +3,5 (1,952)

Who are the worst in Division A? I think the answer is Israel. Hungary plays bad, but I just can't not to pay attentiontion on the fact that only one year ago the Hungarian young ladies played in final and lost to Russia. One year ago Hungary met Israel and won 68-62 and may be today it will happen once again. Looking to the stats Israel is better than Hungary, but in this case I will say that it's only numbers. I wanted to pass on this game, but then so an interview with the israelian coach and decided to take this 3,5 points offer.

He says: "I'm very sorry, but our place is in division B. We can't lie to ourselves, we wanted, we tryed, the games showed that we are the weakest team in this tournament. We can't win games only because we want to. We are too much behind other teams quality and phisical ability."

Game N#2/1000 ===WON===(2-0)

Poland (U20) - Netherlands (U20) Over 131.5 (1.943)

Without doind to much research, I think that this game can easily go to 140+ points. According the stats the teams shoot for a combine total of 126 points (but they are allowing more).

Now, I saw that they are taking around 65 shots per game (incl. behind the arc), but their low % making it only 61 points for Poland and 65 for Netherlands. Against each other it can be easier to score... One more thing I taked from the stats is the offensive rebound, both teams are good and the thing can improve the total number.

Game N#1/1000 ===WON===(1-0)

Lithuania(U16) -33 vs. Portugal(U16) 1.952
This big handicap doesn't scares me. For both teams it will be game number two. The lithuanians easily won 103-51 vs. Ukraine, while the portugals lost to Turkey 79-38. The 38 points and the 103 points tells a lot about differencies between the teams. Lithuania won by a huge 52 points advantage, they rested its starters for most of the second half, but the substitutes proved equally as good, continuing to play unselfishly and looking for the extra pass and the best shot on offense while maintaining their lockdown defense. The Lithuania coach said after the game, that he was satisfied with his players defence, but their offence should be better. After this words I ask myself: "How much points you want to score? 200?". I think that knowing that Turkey trashed Portugal by 41 points, Lithuania will want to make at least the same, if not more...

Portugal knows that they are may be in the league of Ukraine, ut not in Turkish or Lithuanian. ‘Obviously it’s a tough result to lose by 40 points but we always knew it was going to be hard against a team like Turkey,’ said Arauzo. And, after seeing Lithuania win comfortably against Ukraine earlier in the day, the portuguese coach believes that the game against Ukraine's side on Sunday could be a good match-up for Portugal.

Hold on bookies...

After one week I'm once again stuck with my 100 bukses. My system tells bet 5% of the bank untill 21% profit, but because of the amount wright now I decided to play around 10% from the bank (with 42% profit on each stage) untill stage #11. From stage #11 I will return to my originally based system. I know I need 168 units at the end, but the start will be very important and not easy. I decided to open an account at blogabet, so who follow me sometimes, can see my stats there...

Not a good day...

It looks like a not good day, I can even call it bad. Account, oh account, my account knowed better days, thousand of $, now I have 6.38$ left (8 games pending). Close to over...
If I'm not reaching 0 on stage #1 - I will probably make a deposit. I never lost them money, never, allways made a withdraw, at least my money, but usually theirs. Ha-ha.
Bukses news later....$101.58 (I was there one week ago)

Friday (Day#6)

Actually I was wrong, as all the WNBA will take place today (there were no games yesterday). About the MLB - no selections yesterday (may be today). My first pick for today is an 1/4 finals match from U20 European Women Championship between great Britain and Poland.
My pick is under 133,5 (with 1,901 odds). W H Y ?
Each team played 4 games until today and only once (per each team the total was higher than 133). I made a little research and i find a very interesting thing, firstival GBritain allows opponents score 63,25 points, NED scored vs. GB 58 points (their average without that game 72!), LTU scored 63 (ave. 81!), SUI scored 70 (the highest) with ave. of 51,33 and finally POR scored 62 (ave. 73). In 3 out of 4 games GB reduced the opponent points by at least 11 points.
Now Poland, allowed opponents to score 53,75 points! MOT scored 78 (ave. 82), IRL 38 (ave. 55,66), SWE 49 (ave. 59,33) and finally ROM scored 50 (ave. 59). In 4 out of 4 games Poland reduced the number of points of their opponents.
Now: GB allows 63,25, while Poland 53,75 = TOTAL of 117 (16 less than the posted total).
Why the line is 133? The answer is - I don't know! Poland scores 60 per game while GB 68.
Plus I can't not to pay attention on the fact that this is 1/4 finals!!! On the paper looks very good choice. I hope not only on paper.

4-2 today and +54,88% profit

I will make some plays on WNBA and may be MLB... looking for the day #4 in a row with profit.

The tempo is OK...137.68$

Not a bad day was yesterday, playing 1/2 unit per game I gained almoust 1 unit. Still the hole is too deep, but I'm satisfied. The early WNBA games a little bit surprised me, but the 2-2 allowed me not to lose too much. i almoust finished my WNBA plays 3-1 or even 4-0, but Houston ( I taked them +4) lost by 7 after 10 points advantage in 30 minutes and my second loss was the game between NY and Detroit (was on Under 143). The game ended in OT after 70-70 in regulation. Today I have 3 plays till now: (1) Makkabi TA in UEFA under 3,5 (0-0 after the first half) (2) Bulgaria - Latvia Under 136,5 (47-40 with 12:19 to play and finally) (3) Serbia - Spain Under 147 (59-63 with 16:20 to play). Looks OK till now, but the importing thing is to WIN at the end.

Good night...

3 WNBA plays and 8 MLB plays waiting on my card and only 1,56$ on my account.
It's start of the END? Results tomorrow...
Bye, bye (MiP)
It's not... Although, Rodionova retired and lost the game, the WNBA bringed me 2 wins and 1 loss + the MLB guys made a very good job, so I little bit improved my position with a poor -15,2704 on the 1st stage.

A. Rodionova vs A. Kerber (Rodionova)

Just red an interesting preview on http://brainbetting.com/ writed by Anastazija:
"I believe majority of people won't agree with me on this one. Kerber came out of nowhere (she had very good results from ITF tournaments) and than suddenly transform that also on WTA level. After making upset after upset i was curious how this fine lady plays and i have to admit (after seeing her match against Chakvetadze in Wimbledon) she is pretty good and besides that she is lefty. General looking she could be rated as a better player at the moment but than you also have to look at whole situation. According to latest results she is infront of Rodionova but taking Fed cup participation into consideration it might change whole idea around the head.
Long flight from Japan (it takes almost one day), different timezones, also being beaten by Morita and Takao doesn't speaks into her favour. So IMO she will be out of draw sooner or later. Won't be suprised is somehow she get into 2nd round cos afterall Rodionova is far from showing stability. This will be real test for her and will show if she is able at this relative young age taking all that pressure and tough schedule WTA is offering. Maybe Rodionova is not showing best performances yet but when she has US tournaments on schedule she usually achives better results as usual.

Odds: 2,18

Australia(U19)-Argentina(U19) Over 161

===LOST===

Just lost this game (going 2-2 today). Only interesting games left today is WNBA and MLB.
The WNBA can be somehow learned, but MLB is only pack of stats for me.
Speaking about the WNBA, my leans (no plays for now): Connecticut should win the game ws. the worst team in WNBA, but they are playing bad at home and the -8 handicap could be too much for them. Seattle vs. Phoenix, I'm thinking about Over and Seattle +3, and finally SA -3 and over... I placed...an WTA Tennis bet...

France (U19) - Serbia (U19) Under 157,5

===WON===

Almoust the same situation like in my previous preview, but here the bookies reduced the total.
Depending on stats only it must be more than 160-163. Both teams need this win, but Serbia (the home team) will control the tempo... Under for me. I thought to take the under 157, but now it's 157.5 - anyway thanks for the half point, may be it will be useful. Odds: 1,926

Germany (U20)-Latvia (U20) Under 143.5

===WON===

In few words... Latvia and Germany can play a high scoring games. Germany tooks around 50 shots from 2pt, but their % is low (around 40). Latvia takes less than 40 shots with good percentages, but... here my big but. The game is too important for both teams. With a loss each team is almoust out from final-four. In other words, if the bookies set the total looking to the stats, I will take the under almoust always.
Latvia probably will continue with their SURE and SLOW game plan, while Germany shooting % can't be better in so important game. Something around 130-135 points game for me. Odds: 1,943

Bulgaria(U20)-Turkey(U20) Over 136.5

===LOST===

Thinking about this game, I had only one thing in my head... Will Bulgaria give up or not? Only one team has real chances for going to final four - Turkey, on the other hand, Bulgaria playing at home, but will play without any pressure after their loss to France.
The bookies set a 137 total here, because of team averages till now: Bulgaria 64 pts. per game, Turkey 75. I think the teams have good chances to pass this total and go over because of Bulgaria status. Looking to the stats, it seems like Turkey likes the fast tempo games, they are taking around 70 shots with average %, and taking around 30 FT per game (I expect them score their average today). Bulgaria as I said before will play with almoust no pressure and as a result of that they can score more than 64 (Turkey allows 71,3 pts. per game 80-55-80). Odds: 1,971

$101.34 and a long way to go...

Posting and deleting, posting and deleting - it's the main thing I'm doing in the last few days. I can't expect doing well if betting without any basis.
How many times I said myself: "there is a lot of games to choose from and there is always opportunities...", but after that I'm placing bets only for fun, only for placing.
If I want to win, I need firstival - work with rules. My second problem is time - I just can't spend to much with my crazy hobby.
I will try to work hard two-three hours per day and the results will come, I'm sure.
DON'T WASTE TIME FOLLOWING LIVE SCORES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Happy birthday!

Happy birthday

to my sister.

Already 23.

WOW!!!

Bla... bla...bla...

I'm getting crazy with this system. My last try was to go with good tipsters, but it doesn't worked, so now I will only trust myself. I have very few units, so my picks must be very carefully selected. It's not the end of the world, but I'm now with only 103,20$ .I know I can do it. One month ago I was on stage N#12 (my second time I was there) with around 800% profit... The bad thing in my system it's bad streaks, they allways be there, the problem is how to make them shorter. The lesson I learned from the last night that there is good tipsters around the net, but I'm not trusting anybody. GL to me, and if you want to follow me, good luck to you also.
14/07/2007 - I'm 30 today! And still without my million. Ha-ha.
About the money, I have only 100+$ left on my account.
PAPA.LEON